Monday, March 7, 2011

$200 Oil Certain

Petrol prices could double, minister warns
5 March 2011
, by Lewis Smith (The Independent UK)


Soaring petrol prices could reach £2 a litre if the situation in Libya and other oil-producing nations in the region worsens, the Overseas Development Minister has warned.

Alan Duncan fears the record $147-a-barrel price reached for oil in 2008 will be smashed unless calm returns to the Middle East and North Africa in the coming months.

The minister, a former oil trader, said that $200 a barrel is quite possible, and if oil-producing nations are hit by co-ordinated terrorist action on top of the revolutionary unrest, the price could reach $250 a barrel, which would see the advent of the £2 litre.

He said in a newspaper interview: "I've been saying in government for two months that if this does go wrong, £1.30 at the pump could look like a luxury. $200 is on the cards.


The suggestion that oil prices could reach $200 a barrel prompted renewed warnings that it could lead to a double-dip recession because of the increased pressure on household income.

A survey by Theos, a think tank, suggested that fuel price rises combined with cuts in public services are the issues most likely to bring widespread protests in Britain.

Saudi Arabia's `Day of Rage' Lures Record Bets on $200 Oil: Chart of Day

7 March 2011
, by Ann Koh and Kim Kyoungwha (Bloomberg)


Options traders are betting more than ever that crude oil is heading to $200 a barrel as some websites call for a “Day of Rage” in Saudi Arabia and anti- government protests spread in the Middle East and North Africa.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows open interest, or the number of outstanding contracts, for “call” options to buy New York crude for June delivery at $200 a barrel.

The number has escalated, along with crude futures, to the highest since the options started trading in July 2009 amid worsening civil unrest in Libya and rare demonstrations in Saudi Arabia.


The price of oil is going to go up, whether you like it to or don’t,” said Juerg Kiener, chief investment officer at Swiss Asia Capital Ltd. in Singapore.

If Saudi Arabia fails, then I say you have a fire in the house. They gave out $30 billion of money so maybe they’ll buy time. But I don’t see the problems disappearing.”

Call options grant the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy a security at an agreed price before a set date.

The $200 June New York crude options expire May 17. Oil rose to $106.45 a barrel today, the highest intraday price since Sept. 29, 2008
Global natural gas supplies could be reduced by about 3 percent if production cuts in Libya spread to other producing nations in the Middle East, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said in a report dated March 6.

Gas exports totaling 79 billion cubic meters a year could be cut if social unrest causes disruptions in Egypt, Oman, Yemen and Algeria, said the Goldman analysts led by London-based Samantha Dart. That is the equivalent of 2.6 percent of global supplies and includes 10 billion already suspended in Libya, the report said. Potential disruptions to Algeria would have the largest impact as the country produces 2.7 percent of global output, according to the report.

No comments:

Post a Comment