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As I type this, a flurry of activity is taking place within security and financial circles around the world. Normally, this would signify just another busy day in the hard-working quarters of modern defence and finance, however this time there is good reason to suspect that the world may be about to witness something historic.
If not something violent, then certainly something spectacular.
I’m not going to waste time on a long, detailed post. Instead, I’m going to present the data, the facts and the patterns. Then I’m going to make you make up your own mind.
First are the financial movements that preceded the security movements, starting with the on October 1st, which shows an unusual .15 yield on treasury bonds. Basically, investors are betting big time on ‘you know what’ hitting the fan shortly.
Digging a little deeper we begin to see something interesting emerge. As of closing (again, October 1) on Friday, we see some unusually high option volume reported in Schaeffer’s Investment Research]CNN Money report[/url=http://money.cnn.com/data/bonds/][/u] on October 1st, which shows an unusual .15 yield on treasury bonds. Basically, investors are betting big time on ‘you know what’ hitting the fan shortly.
Digging a little deeper we begin to see something interesting emerge. As of closing (again, October 1) on Friday, we see some unusually high option volume reported in [url=http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/unusually_high_option_volume.aspx]Schaeffer’s Investment Research[/b][/u] supporting this trend.
The S&P traders seemed to be on the bandwagon too. This video showing massive put options on the S&P for October speaks for itself.
It was only today that it became clear to many that the world economy is actually decoupling from the U.S, fleeing the sinking ship while it still can. In that industry, you look out for yourself.
To top it off, the other global capital of modern finance, London, has even worse news. According to an economic think-tank and Sky News, the UK is on the cusp of a second banking failure.
Now whether all of these events are pointing towards the same thing or not, the theme of something big happening soon is replete throughout the media lately. We should not be scared, nor should we panic. We must take a step back and look carefully at what is going on so that we can assess what, and where, the real danger actually is.
With the unusual activity happening in one place, we could be mistaken for missing the events unfolding in another.
That other place is Western Europe.
This week, the United States and Britain issued a strong travel warning to European-bound tourists. Without offering specifics, they said the threat was “high” and “imminent”, raising more questions than it answered. Yes, this happens from time to time and in most cases nothing comes of it.
That’s why when Japan issued an extremely rare travel warning to its citizens,....
http://bretthenebery.wordpress.com/2010/10/04/rumours-aside-something-big-is-about-to-happen/
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. economy is likely to be “fairly bad” or “very bad” over the next six to nine months.
ReplyDelete“We see two main scenarios,” analysts led by Jan Hatzius, the New York-based chief U.S. economist at the company, wrote in an e-mail to clients. “A fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1 1/2 percent to 2 percent rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises moderately to 10 percent, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to an outright recession.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-06/oldman-sachs-says-u-s-economy-to-be-fairly-bad-recession-is-possible.html