WakeUp 2010: Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization StarStarStarStarStar HOUSEHOLD DATA

Friday, October 2, 2009

Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization StarStarStarStarStar HOUSEHOLD DATA

Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

HOUSEHOLD DATA                                  

 Table A-12.  Alternative measures of labor underutilization

 (Percent)


                                            Not seasonally adjusted                   Seasonally adjusted                
                                                                                                                                        
                  Measure

                                            Sept.    Aug.     Sept.    Sept.    May      June     July     Aug.     Sept.
                                            2008     2009     2009     2008     2009     2009     2009     2009     2009 

 U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks
or longer, as a percent of the
civilian labor force.......................  2.3      4.9      5.3      2.4      4.5      5.1      5.1      5.1      5.4 
                                                                                                                                        
 U-2 Job losers and persons who
completed temporary jobs, as a percent of
the civilian labor force..………………………………………….  3.0      6.0      6.0      3.5      6.2      6.2      6.2      6.4      6.8 
                                                                                                                                        
 U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the
civilian labor force
official unemployment rate)...………………......   6.0     9.6      9.5     6.2      9.4      9.5      9.4      9.7      9.8 
                                                                                                                                        
 U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged
workers, as a percent of the civilian labor
force plus discouraged workers............   6.2     10.0      9.9      6.5      9.8     10.0      9.8     10.1     10.2 
                                                                                                                                        
 U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged
workers, plus all other marginally attached
workers, as a percent of the civilian labor
force plus all marginally attached workers.. 6.9     10.9     10.8      7.2     10.6     10.8     10.7     11.0     11.1 
                                                                                                                                        
 U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally
attached workers, plus total employed part
time for economic reasons, as a percent of
the civilian labor force plus all marginally
attached workers……………………………………………………………………… 10.6    16.5     16.1    11.2     16.4     16.5     16.3     16.8     17.0 

    NOTE:  Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate
 that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers,
 a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.
 Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had
 to settle for a part-time schedule.  For more information, see "BLS introduces new range of alternative unemployment
 measures," in the October 1995 issue of the Monthly Labor Review.  Updated population controls are introduced annually
 with the release of January data.

Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

Ok now lets talk about some real numbers. As at least the AP mentioned both U-3 and U-6 numbers in its report today, and throwing numbers around and not knowing what they mean is a pointless gesture.
First the numbers you here are “adjusted” numbers. This is based upon a premise of seasonal work. In other words they adjust numbers to try to represent facts in a way that has less of an impact. Or basically lie about the truth.
Lets get away from the “Seasonally adjusted” numbers and work with the real numbers. U-3 real number of unemployed is 9.5% and one year ago it was 6.0%. This is the number of unemployed workers reporting their status to the Department of Labor because they are collected benefits from the government for unemployment compensation. This is not a real reflection of the total number of unemployed or underemployed in the USA. Its an under reporting of the real facts in this case.
Lets look at the real number U-6. These are all workers that are in jobs that are temporary, seasonal, part-time, or not working at all. This is the real economic indicator that has meaning. This number should be lower then 7.5% in a good economy and never higher then 12% in a recession. The unadjusted number is 16.1%. That figure is far above recession markers and places the USA in a depression labor market.

Now lets add in some other factors of the word economy: ALERT! YouTube - Montana USA Being Militarized Now 2009, Permanent Link to US Census Bureau report- 40 million living in poverty, Dow Drops Over 200; GE, Comcast Slide and just for fun Permanent Link to Shoe thrown at IMF chief.

Please don’t tell me I am doing better then last year or that we have hit bottom. I will note that DOW hit “a” bottom in March of 2009 but other then that its climbed and hit a plateau and seems to be against some glass ceiling that is around the figure of 9800 (that’s about 1999 levels I do believe).
With the financial double speak (see: Financial Double Speak Continues. No Wonder so Many are Confused) going coming out of the Federal Reserve I myself am worried. At this time I would count on winning the Powerball, Lotto or hitting it big with a slot machine before I would count on a real economic recovery.

-- Frank the Pariah 9^ 999